Public opinion polls predict rosy prospects for some Ukrainian political parties

Photo: Reuters

On the eve of voting day political parties order from pollsters data about the support of voters. Capital received figures that campaign headquarters of potential political leaders are relying on in the election race.

Dreams lined with silver

The Social Monitoring Center and the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies published their data regarding electoral moods, according to which 8 parties will win seats in the Verkhovna Rada. The data is indicative since for the first time in many years sociologists failed to see Anatoliy Hrytsenko’s party Civil Position as a potential winner in the next elections. However, the political force refers to its own internal data, according to which it will overcome the 5% threshold. «Opinion polls ordered by our party show that 7–9% of the electorate supports us,» they said.

Chairman of the Democratic Alliance Vasyl Hatsko, who is on the list of the Civil Position party, believes such figures are realistic. «Today, we are fighting for third place against the People’s Front and Batkivshchyna,» said Hatsko in a conversation with Capital. Yet, his rivals in Batkivshchyna and the People’s Front do not believe they are fighting against Hrytsenko’s team for third place. They have such an attitude from their own public opinion polls. «Our ratings have considerably increased. According to an opinion poll ordered by our party, we are currently in second place,» said an MP close to VR Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov.

«In her recent speech, Yulia Tymoshenko said our study predicts a confident second place in this election,» said MP Volodymyr Yavorivskiy (Batkivshchyna). Our source in the party said its current rating is close to 12%.

Despite this, the Radical Party led by Oleh Lyashko does not agree with the opinion polls ordered by Batkivshchyna and the People’s Front. Deputy of the Kyiv City Council Ihor Mosiychuk, who is running for a seat in the parliament on the party’s list, told the publication that the ordered polls showed that the support of voters is 17–19%. «We have gotten used to underestimation of our performance since the days of the presidential campaign,» said Mosiychuk when asked about the discrepancy between his data and the published results of opinion polls. Mosiychuk assures that the party still has all prospects to improve its rating. «Our leader and other politicians on the party’s list will continue to canvass up until the day of voting. We will manage to summon our voters,» says Mosiychuk.

Conspiracy theory

An MP close to Serhiy Tihipko said the Strong Ukraine Party focused on TV appearances of politicians from the top of its list on the last days before the elections. «Tihipko, Khoroshkovskiy, Mazepa and Fabrykant are constantly visible on TV screens and our rating has already reached 7.8%. This is despite the fact that dirty political tricks are being played against our leader and the party,» said one party member on condition of anonymity.

Our source in the headquarters of the Opposition Bloc said that the party’s support is gaining strength in the southeastern regions of the country. «Voters in industrial zones that we are counting on are waking up. We will confidently win at least 7%,» said the source.

Representatives of Svoboda say the party may surprise people in these parliamentary elections, as it happened back in 2012. «At that time, the number of votes predicted for Svoboda was 4%, but we garnered almost 11% of the votes. We are counting on the votes of those who are undecided. Over the past month, our unofficial rating reached 6% and continues to grow,» said MP Yuriy Syrotyuk. He makes claims to the quality of social studies and mentions the intrigues of political rivals, who set their sights on supporters of Svoboda.

Director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation Iryna Bekeshkina says parties’ complaints about social scientists are ungrounded. «Political headquarters are always inclined to blame sociological services for poor performance and not themselves or politicians, who make mistakes,» she said.

The Petro Poroshenko Bloc is the only party whose ratings from internal polls coincide with the official data published by sociologists. «The difference is within the sociological margin of error,» said a source of the party’s campaign headquarters. The PPB expects to improve its rating up to 40%, according to the source. The pro-presidential party also follows the ratings of its competitors in the electoral field. For example, it gives the Yatsenyuk’s and Turchynov’s People’s Front some 8% of voter support, while its popularity index for Batkivshchyna is around 6%.

Political analyst Andriy Yermolayev attributes the ups and downs in ratings, which are recorded in studies to the challenging election campaign. «Ukraine has never held an election in conditions of such rapid changes of the political palette or an actual war. Within one week voters became disappointed in the old politicians and have become diehard supporters of new politicians. Votes instantly flow from one party to another. This trend is reflected in weekly public opinion polls,» Yermolayev assured.