Average oil price per barrel in 2015 is expected at $56.7 — IMF

The IMF expects this year the average price of oil on world markets to hover around $56.73 per barrel, and in the future — $63.88, the agency reported on Tuesday at the World Economy prospects presentation in Beijing.

The average price was determined by simple arithmetic — by taking the average prices of Brent, Dubai and West Texas oil. For the sake of comparison, the report mentioned that the average price of oil in 2014 was $96.3 per barrel.

The commentary to the report provides background to the falling oil prices, for example that since September 2014, the price of oil fell by approximately 55%.

This decrease is a result of the unexpected low demand for oil in some major economies, especially in the emerging markets. Futures prices suggest a partial recovery in the coming years, in accordance with the expected negative impact of low prices on the investment inflow, as well as with the future growth capacity in the oil sector, the report said.

According to IMF, it is also possible that the oil prices have fallen too steeply and could rise higher or sooner than expected if the demand ends up higher than expected.