A large number of undecided voters spoils the plans of the candidates

Sociologists do not know who 30% of the electorate will vote for.

Photo: Konstantin Melnitsky

For the first time before the elections in independent Ukraine sociologists are faced with a situation, where they cannot confidently predict the future of the next composite of the parliament prior to the election day. A third of the electorate that plans to cast their ballots in the elections does not know which candidate they should vote for to this day. Such a situation gives hope for parties that were considered underdogs throughout the entire election race.

Stable trend

According to the latest data of public opinion polls conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in conjunction with the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 54% of citizens will definitely go to vote, while 18.8% will most likely show up at voting stations. Compared to the last parliamentary elections in 2012, the number of people that will exercise their voting rights is somewhat lower at this point. However, the main difference in the current elections is that 32% of voters that are inclined to cast their ballot have not decided which candidate they will vote for.

«There was never such indecisiveness of voters. In these conditions the number of parties that may overcome the 5% threshold is impossible to tell. One can expect some surprises from voters who are undecided. Taking into account the statistical error of 3.4%, I think there may be certain adjustments to the list of the parties that are on the verge of winning seats in parliament,» Director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation Iryna Bekeshkina told Capital.

General Director of KIIS Volodymyr Paniotto says that the usual number of undecided voters usually started to decline three weeks prior to the elections, but this year this figure has remained the same since September. Paniotto specified that the majority of voters that do not know whom to vote for are in the central regions of Ukraine. «Those who have not decided are proponents of former allies in the United Opposition. The growing political battle between them complicates the situation. In this war of compromises voters cannot make a final choice,» Paniotto told Capital.

Yet another factor that has an impact on the number of undecided voters is their unwillingness to support parties that are currently in the opposition or are not popular in the regions. «Such a situation is observed under the pressure of the majority or the administration. For example, in the eastern regions people will not say that they will vote for Batkivshchyna or the People’s Front, while in the western regions people are not willing to vote for the Opposition Bloc,» says Paniotto.

Inner voice

Sociologists note that the current election campaign is a typical battle for voters among parties with similar ideologies. Executive Director of the SOCIS Center of Social and Marketing Research Oleksandr Stehniy notes that Strong Ukraine and the Opposition Bloc are competing with each other and have the same voter support. In their turn, proponents of the right-wing ideas that at the start of the election campaign were mobilized by Oleh Lyashko are easily reorienting themselves towards the Right Sector and Svoboda.

«The electorate of the Communist Party of Ukraine has always been a mainstay — namely pensioners that were disciplined to go out to vote. I think many are undecided among them and the CPU is not conducting an active advertising campaign in the central regions of the country,» Stehniy told the publication.

Director of the sociological group Rating Oleksiy Antypovych affirms that today an overflow of the electorate of parties with similar ideologies is being observed and this could bring some surprises on voting day. «Those who have been conducting an aggressive advertising campaign prior to the elections may gain additional brownie points,» Antypovych told Capital.

Undecided voters are the main target of canvassing among parties that today sociologists relegate to the category of underdogs. For example, Chair of the Agrarian Union Hennadiy Novikov, who is running on the list of the Zastup party, told Capital that the party will most certainly overcome the 5% threshold to win a seat in the parliament. Moreover, the party is hoping to increase its number of votes thanks to its canvassing campaign. «Our headquarters slightly miscalculated the number of canvassing materials required and residents of certain cities did not even know about us, which is why we went on the offensive,» he told the publication.

The Right Sector, which is counting on garnering votes of proponents of Oleh Lyashko that are in favor of activating the anti-terrorist operation, is optimistic. «We are not conducting advertising campaigns, but are instead working with voters in the ATO and conducting lustration of officials and judges. According to our estimates, around 8% of the electorate is ready to vote for us,» press secretary of the Right Sector Artem Skoropadskiy told Capital.

Kateryna Samoilyk — third on the list of the CPU — says that the party is counting on votes in the southern regions of the country. «There one third of the voters have not made a decision,» she assures. Meanwhile, the Opposition Bloc assured Capital that its popularity is growing in the industrial regions of the country.