A course in German. Angela Merkel will prepare Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko for talks in Minsk

Angela Merkel is going to show Ukraine the way how to resolve the situation in Donbass

Photo: Reuters

Tomorrow German Chancellor Angela Merkel will arrive in Kyiv. According to information that Capital possesses, during her visit Kyiv and Berlin will try to develop a common position for holding talks with Moscow and define the limits of concessions that Ukraine will have to agree to in order to resolve the situation in the Donbas region.

With an eye on Minsk

The only visit that Angela Merkel made to Kyiv was in June 2008, when the subject of talks with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko was gas issues and the prospects of association between Ukraine and the European Union. The day before the arrival of the German chancellor Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin described Merkel’s visit as “unusual”. “I would like to stress that this is quite the unusual visit,” said Klimkin, though he was not specific. The leader of Germany will hold meetings with the president and premier of Ukraine on the eve of Independence Day. However, according to information that Capital possesses Merkel’s visit is dedicated to a totally different event, namely the holding of tri-lateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and the Eurasian Triumvirate of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

As a source of Capital in the Presidential Administration told, Berlin now sees its role in facilitating the process of Kyiv and Moscow finding bones of contention in the situation in Donbas. The acuity of conflict in the region pushed the plans related to the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement and gas supplies from Russia to the background.

“Germany wants to know what Kyiv expects from the summit in Minsk. Attempts will be made to reach a compromise that Ukraine will agree to regarding the Donbas,” an interlocutor told Capital. He said that official Kyiv perceives the visit of Merkel as a signal of support of the entire EU in which Germany plays the key role.

Berlin is willing to play up to Kyiv in this. For instance, the German newspaper Der Spiegel wrote that Germany is “totally not against Kyiv using the opportunity to once again demonstrate to Russian President Vladimir Putin which side of the conflict Germany and the European Union took”. “Germany is ready to do everything possible to calm down the situation, though this does not mean that it will take actions against Ukraine. Public opinion is forcing Berlin to support Kyiv,” ex-minister of foreign affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko told Capital.

Borders of the permissible

Expert on international relations Serhiy Tereshko predicts that based on the results of the talks held on Saturday only general statements of friendship and cooperation could be expected. “A statement about a serious breakthrough during Merkel’s visit should not be expected. Let’s wait until the meeting in Minsk,” he told Capital. Former press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleh Voloshyn agrees with this opinion. “Everything points to the fact that all sides engaged are seeking a solution to the situation that has evolved. It is clear that all sides are interested in multilateral talks,” he told Capital.

As a reminder, lately Kyiv sent out signals about its readiness to the negotiating process on the Donbas issue. Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration Valeriy Chaliy made one of the latest statements on this issue on August 20. He stated that international dialog being conducted by the Ukrainian leadership will save the lives of soldiers in the ATO and a meeting in the format of the Ukraine-EU-Eurasia Triumvirate will be the first step to peaceful settlement of the conflict in the east of Ukraine.
Voloshyn believes that Kyiv is being pushed for the talks by the economic difficulties caused by the war in the Donbas.

“President Poroshenko cannot help but see that the conflict is further aggravating the difficult economic situation in Ukraine. The situation must be resolved,” says Voloshyn.

At the same time, Tereshko presumes that Russia is also interested in stopping the conflict due to the exacerbation of political and economic relations with the West. However, in his opinion, the Kremlin is seeking a variant, where it can pull out of the conflict and save the face. “A variant is being sought that Kyiv can propose to Moscow,” the expert believes.

Post-war future

Tereshko predicts that the subject of talks could be Ukraine’s obligations in the post-war reconstruction of the infrastructure in the Donbas region. “It is possible that there will be dialog about granting certain powers regarding self-governance to this region and even certain autonomy. The second subject is some form of amnesty for all people detained during the ATO,” Tereshko presumes.

He also does not rule out that Moscow will be proposed expansion of its humanitarian role in those regions that seriously suffered from the war. Kyiv is already holding talks on the participation of partner countries in the rebuilding of the Donbas and Russia may be offered a part in this process. “I believe that Russia along with EU countries may be proposed to help rebuild Donbas with Russia’s role being that of the leader. This is also an option of how to save the face and support the residents of the region,” Tereshko noted.

There may also be guarantees in the proposals that Kyiv will refuse from accession to NATO. However, professor of the Institute of International Relations at the University of Warsaw Andrzej Szeptycki warned that there is no quick solution to the conflict in the Donbas. He said, regardless of the significance of the visit of Merkel, Ukraine should not count on realistic financial assistance in the foreseeable future.